AVIAPRO CONSULTING BLOG
What Will Passenger Demand Look Like Post-COVID?
20 May 2020
A little over a month, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced that global passenger demand had fallen 14.1% compared to 2019, “the steepest decline in traffic since 9/11”.
Needless to say, the industry has been left reeling from the consequences of the COVID-19 global pandemic.
Some analysts will argue that past indicators used by the industry to assess how passenger demand is forecasted -- those traditional factors that have driven QSI models -- may go by the wayside. In fact, some had already acknowledged a change in data sources being analyzed, even before the impact of COVID19.
When it comes to aviation safety, the impact of COVID-19 has taken the psychology of travel to a new dimension. Will the past month’s events hurt the need for travel in the long run? New legislation is being introduced around the world every week… how will it impact our industry?
Emirates, working with the Dubai Health Authority, are now testing passengers for COVID19 prior to boarding. How long will this continue? Globalization is too important for continued economic development. The sharing of knowledge and ideas needs to be facilitated by the movement of goods and people, regardless of the technology that keeps us virtually connected.
“Whether for leisure or business, how comfortable will people be in sharing confined spaces, not only in aircraft but in the entire A-to-B travel process?” asks AviaPro’s Head of Industrial Services, Jorge Abando.
“From taxis, trains and buses, rental cars used by others, airport terminals and lounges. Let’s also consider train stations and cruise ship terminals.”
What are some current observations?
- In the leisure travel cruise industry, it’s not surprising to see some agencies report next year’s
- bookings are down 23%, but other agencies report 2021 bookings remain strong, up around 15% -- most likely from rebooking the remainder of this year’s cancellations, according to Cruise Planners
- Skift research shows short term-rentals doing better than traditional hotels
- Some advertisers have increased marketing for leisure travel in an attempt to rebuild demand from the ground up
- Forbes Travel has reported on whether small, private tours will become the new norm
- Travelogic Data Co. predicts a return of travel agents and travel management services
According to Executive Traveler, key insights into post-COVID-19 leisure travel show incremental increases in several stages that won’t reach 80 to 90% of pre-COVID-19 leisure travel until another 24 months from now, minimum.
What we’re reading this week:
Oliver Wyman for Forbes
Why Aerospace’s Recovery From COVID-19 May Take Five Years
Jessica Puckett for Condé Nast Traveller
JetBlue Is Blocking All Middle Seats Through Early July
Frederick K. Larkin for Skies Magazine
Airbus aims to ‘bridge the worlds of health and aviation’
Read more on the AviaPro Blog