AVIAPRO CONSULTING BLOG

 

Adopting Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and achieving efficiency gains

29 September 2022

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has been defined by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) as a fuel which achieves net greenhouse gas emission reductions on a life-cycle basis. SAF is made by converting renewable feedstock to fuel molecules that are identical to conventional jet fuel, which is called Jet A. The catalytic conversions are very similar to those that are already used in conventional refineries, but while crude oil used for producing conventional fuel is uniform, the feedstock used in bio-refineries can be very diverse.

Competing Demand, Technological Advancements, and Feedstock Availability

Energy-dense liquid fuels such as SAF are currently the only available option for long-haul flights, the decarbonization of which is inevitable to make an impact. The realization of the targeted volumes and associated capacity scale-up is impacted by four important factors.

• Competing demand for feedstock and production capacity:
  New or increased biofuel/biomass demand from other sectors (road, marine, chemicals) may lead to higher biomass and production capacity pressure. Similarly, SAF demand-side stimulation will increase demand for biomass and SAF volumes.
  
  
• Aviation sector growth:
  Jet fuel demand is anticipated to rebound to pre-COVID levels by 2024 and to remain constant after that. These growth assumptions could go either way and could impact SAF volumes needed.
  
  
• Technological advancement:
  Lack of widespread commercialization and application of technologies able to convert cellulosic biomass or CO to SAF will make it very challenging to reach mandated targets. Alternatively, technological breakthroughs in other areas, such as Power-to-Liquid technologies, may increase the scale-up rate of SAF capacity.
  
  
• Availability and mobilization of feedstock:
  The severity of sustainability restrictions on feedstock impacts the feedstock base supply. The scale-up rate of Bio-advanced SAF capacity also largely depends on the pace of mobilization of cellulosic feedstock.

Advantages of SAF:

• Low carbon
• Safe
• Reliable
• Sourced from a wide variety of agricultural and forestry options
• Improves economic activity for farmers
• Improves the environment
• Improves aircraft performance
• Improves economic recovery by diversifying and strengthening the job market

The Ideal Combination of Facilitators to Expand Supply by 2050

Many airplanes that are flying today will likely still be flying in 2030, and airplanes  sold today will most likely be flying in 2050. This means the sustainable aviation fuel produced must be absolutely identical from a molecular perspective to the Jet A fuel that these airplanes use today, so that the current fleet can use it safely. 

Also, an increased backing will be required for new conversion pathways to convert sustainable feedstock beyond just waste oils and fats, such as Alcohol-to-Jet or Power-to-Liquids. Pioneer facilities are likely to be associated with higher costs and risks. Industry and policy makers will need to work together to get adequate de-risking mechanisms in place to demonstrate these new technologies at scale. A flexible SAF strategy may prove useful in dealing with the challenges in sustainable biomass mobilization.

Finally, a sound, scientifically grounded sustainability framework is essential to directing this change. This framework should provide long-term stability for a solid investment climate, while leaving room for improvement as the thinking on sustainable practices evolves. Furthermore, systems steering towards sustainable outcomes such as greenhouse gas emission thresholds will provide clarity and enable policy flexibility.

For more information and research about SAF and its importance to aviation, please visit our consulting services page or contact Jorge.Abando@aviaproconsulting.com.

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